Prediction markets for the upcoming Romanian Presidential election

I opened up two distinct markets (with the help of InklingMarkets— hat tip to Al Roth, on Market Design), both active until November 21st (the first election round is on November 22nd, the eventual second one on December 6th) :

Sign up and trade!

PS1. Hope I didn’t make any mistakes; I put these up in less than 5 minutes :-).

PS2. Although you might really not share this opinion, I ‘conjecture’ that, if the outcome is not clear in the first election round, the future President will eventually be the first round’s runner-up. Wanna trade against that? See above :-).


8 thoughts on “Prediction markets for the upcoming Romanian Presidential election”

  1. All foreigners are invited if they wish, even M&amp;M&#39;s :-). <br />If you go for it: there is some information on the candidates in those wiki links under the stocks. The candidates who do not have a separate wiki link are not likely to matter anyway :-).

  2. mircione2001, <br />Each candidate started with equal chances, hence the equal stakes in the beginning. While I could have given them different priors, I think that is even unsafer, after all you do not want to influence a public prediction market with the organizer&#39;s priors (alternatively, which existent poll should you trust etc?). So, as in vast majority of cases, they all started with

  3. Interesting prediction market question.<br /><br />I wonder how many people need to vote in order to have a better rank.<br /><br />Currently some of the candidates are shown with 8% but in reality they have no chance to win.

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