Some names are recurrent in the betting pools, but– as usually– it does not appear that anybody has a very clear favourite for this year’s Economics Nobel, and that seems true even in terms of the Econ area(s) to be currently rewarded. Thomson Reuters’ predictions are sampled from a pretty varied set topic-wise. Harvard , Chicago and Northwestern / Kellogg seem all to be somewhat home biased for the leading pick, though with very heterogeneous faculty preferences in the rest. And when the experts disagree to this extent, you will rightly ask yourselves if there is any point in attempting a forecast.
But, as you came here anxious to get my prediction for tomorrow: I think it is high time search theory was recognized for its significant contributions to a great many Econ subdisciplines (inter alia, search is responsible for crucial modelling advances in Labour Economics, Consumer Theory, Monetary Theory, and way beyond) — with Peter Diamond, Dale Mortensen and Chris Pissarides as its very deserving pioneers. This was my favourite option also last year, but I assign it a much higher probability of success now. That being said, I hope Dale would not change the dinner plans tomorrow evening if he does get the phone call :-).
Dom'le, sa-i nimeresti pe toti trei nu era problema; in contextul asta sunt de nedespartit :-). Sa-i alegi pe ei– at all, sa zicem asa– e dificil. Unii au pariat pe asta in fiecare an, deci la un moment dat trebuia sa iasa. E prima data cand fac forecast-ul asta, chiar daca am recunoscut deja de o vreme ca ar fi varianta mea preferata.
Maestre, palaria jos! Ai pariat ladoiu' de banet pe asta, sper! Cum de i-ai nimerit pe toti trei?? Nnicu
Not bad, Sebs 🙂
WELL? 🙂
…and you are not biased at all? 😛 I say Ernst Fehr.<br />a Danish economist